期刊文献+

青藏高原东部气候变化及其对长江上游水资源的可能影响 被引量:25

Climate Change over the Eastern Part of Tibetan Plateau and the Impact on Water Resources in the Upper Reaches of Yangtze River
下载PDF
导出
摘要 依据青藏高原东部1961~2003年共43年气象资料以及长江上游宜昌站1890~2000年共111年年径流资料,非参数统计和参数统计方法相结合,分析了青藏高原东部及长江上游水文气象时间序列特性,探讨了青藏高原东部未来气候变化情景下长江上游水资源的可能变化:研究表明:青藏高原东部气温有明显升高的趋势;青藏高原东部降水量有波动性变化,但并不具有显著的变化趋势;长江上游年径流量呈现明显减少的趋势,特别是近10年减幅十分显著。在未来数十年或更长时间,青藏高原东部若出现最不利的气温显著升高且降水大幅减少的“暖-干”气候组合,长江上游水资源将会大幅度减小,若出现气温变化不大而降水增幅较大的“冷-湿”气候时,长江上游水资源则会有较大幅度增加。 the possible association between climate change over the eastern part of Tibetan plateau and the variability of water resources in the upper reaches of Yangtze River is investigated in this study. The long - term trend of the hydrological time series including temperature, precipitation, and runoff are detected by using both parametric and nonparametric techniques. The conclusion obtained in this investigation shows that the temperature experienced a significant monotonic increase at the 5% level of significance during the past 43 years and increased with a speed of 0.136℃ per 10 years. Precipitation also exhibited a slight upward tendency during the past several decades. Decreasing trend at the 10% Level of significance during the past 111 years has been detected in the runoff of the upper reaches of Yangtze River, which decreased with a speed of about 7m^3/s per year. A significant jump is also detected for temperature time series in the late 1990s and for runoff time series around 1923 - 1924. This may be resulted from the possible impact of climate change, although the interior climate mechanism needs further investigation. The trend of future climate change over the eastern part of Tibetan plateau and its impact on the runoff of the upper reaches of Yangtze River are tentatively discussed. In the future decades, the runoff of the upper reaches of Yangtze River will largely decrease under the conditions of temperature rising obviously and precipitation decreasing greatly, whereas it will increase under the conditions of temperature immovability and a great increase in precipitation and the increase range of runoff may he more than that of precipitation. This study enhances the knowledge of the climate change impact on water resources in the Yangtze River.
作者 王顺久
出处 《高原山地气象研究》 2008年第1期42-46,共5页 Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research
基金 中国气象局成都高原气象研究所科研项目(BROP200801 PMP2006005 LPM2005014)
关键词 气候变化 水资源 径流 气温 降水 长江上游 climate change water resources runoff temperature precipitation the upper reaches of Yaugtze River
  • 相关文献

参考文献7

二级参考文献21

共引文献184

同被引文献337

引证文献25

二级引证文献213

相关作者

内容加载中请稍等...

相关机构

内容加载中请稍等...

相关主题

内容加载中请稍等...

浏览历史

内容加载中请稍等...
;
使用帮助 返回顶部