旅沪入境客流西向扩散转移特征及预测

The Character and Forecast of the Transferring of Shanghai's Inbound Tourism Flow towards Western Typical Areas

上海是我国重要的出入境口岸之一,许多境外游客选择从上海入境并将其作为中转地向我国西部地区转移。从某种意义上说,上海已经成为我国西部地区入境游客重要的"二手客源地"之一。那么这种入境旅游流的东西递进空间转移是否存在一定规律,其转移人数又能否进行预测?其结果将对我国西部省区的旅游业宏观调控、旅游业接待、旅游市场营销、区域旅游规划等具有重要意义。在1997-2005年国家旅游统计数据的基础上,运用转移态指数对转移特征进行了分析,并运用灰色马尔可夫链模型对未来2年上海入境旅游流向西部典型(陕西、广西、云南、川渝)旅游区的扩散转移数量作了预测。

Shanghai is the window city opening to the outside world. It is one of the most important ports of entry in China, as well as the core of Yangtze River Delta whieh is one of the three biggest economic circles. With a high degree of internationality, Shanghai will hold International Fair in 2010, which appeals to more overseas tourists who choose it as the port of entry. More and more overseas tourists take it as the port of entry, and then move into the other areas in China. Twelve provinces in the West, taking up more than half of the whole area in China, are full of rich resources, which greatly appeals to those overseas tourists. Therefore, many tourists take Shanghai as the port of entry and then move into other areas in the West by various tools of transportation--especially the airplane, which forms a gradient transferring state from the East to the West. In order to get ready for the forthcoming increasing flow of inbound tourism, it is necessary for the West to do a good job in preparing for accommodations, travel, shopping and entertainment. The West should make tourism plans in advance, which can make sure tourism accommodations go smoothly and orderly, foreign exchange income rapidly increases, and regional tourism industry sustain ably and healthily develops with a rapid speed. The thesis, based on the national tourism statistic data during 1997--2005, analyzes transferring feature by applying transferring state index, and draws a conclusion that overseas tourists in Shanghai mainly flow towards Shaanxi, Guangxi, Yunnan, Chongqing and Sichuan, and predicts inbound tourism transferring number from Shanghai to the West （Shaanxi, Guangxi, Yunnan, Chongqing and Siehuan） in the next two years by applying Grey Markov Chain Modeling.