武陵源旅游需求预测模型精确性的研究

Econometric Approaches in Tourism Demand Forecasting:——A Case Study of Wulingyuan

旅游预测的计量经济学模型是国外研究较多的一个方向,在国内方兴未艾。由于旅游业各种统计数据较难获得,以及旅游业的复杂性,旅游需求模型应用的实例研究很少。以武陵源为案例,运用计量经济学模型中的时间序列模型(SARIMA)和一般—特殊模型对其进行预测,预测的结果与实际值较为吻合。本研究不仅是旅游预测研究中计量经济学模型一次成功的实证研究;同时在时间序列模型中,选用主景点的门票出售数量替代游客人次,给今后的研究者提供了一种新的数据选择视角。也就旅游预测模型研究中经常会遇到的各种技术难题提出了解决方案。

It is widely recognized that econometric model is useful for tourism forecasting. There are few empirical studies of tourism demand model, because it is difficult to acquire tourism statistical data, and the nonlinear behavior of tourism development . This paper is a case study of Wulingyuan tourism demands forecast by applying two econometric models, time series model （SARIMA） and general a special model. The forecast results fit the actual values nicely. This study is not only a suecessful case study in tourism forecasting which using econometric models, but also provides a new data selection perspective for future researchers. Tourism forecasting models frequently encounter various technical challenges. This paper provides some solutions.