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房地产投资风险评价基本理论 被引量:5

The Fundamental Theory of Evaluating Real Estate Investment Risk
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摘要 对房地产投资风险评价理论作了系统的阐述。论述了房地产方案损益先验概率贝叶斯修正的思路,给出了表征投资方案风险程度的修正风险度和风险效应值,对于投资方案评价基准的修正投资收益率、考虑风险因素的净现值和现金流计算进行了探讨,给出了相应的结论。 In this paper, the fundamental theory of evaluating real estate investment risk is interpreted systematically Through discussing the Bayes revise of the priori probability, the risk degree and the risk effect value that may show the degree of investment scheme risk are put forward Based on these presuppositions, the revised investment revenue and the NPV and the cash flow of considering the factor of risk for evaluating investment scheme are discussed and the corresponding conclusions are given
作者 西宝 董玉学
出处 《哈尔滨建筑大学学报》 1997年第5期95-99,共5页 Journal of Harbin University of Civil Engineering and Architecture
关键词 房地产投资风险 贝叶斯修正 投资风险 real estate investment risk systematic risk Bayes revise
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参考文献5

  • 1西宝,硕士学位论文,1995年
  • 2谢贤程,香港房地产市场,1993年
  • 3陈佑起,房地产投资风险管理及经营决策方法,1992年
  • 4孙惠新,投资经济学(译),1992年
  • 5郭仲伟,风险分析与决策,1986年

同被引文献22

  • 1乔婉风,张声东.基于蒙特卡罗方法的房地产投资风险分析研究[J].武汉理工大学学报,2004,26(7):100-102. 被引量:11
  • 2乔婉风,张声东,雷莉.运用计算机仿真房地产投资风险分析的研究[J].武汉理工大学学报,2004,26(8):100-102. 被引量:4
  • 3唐智娟,郭伟.房地产投资风险模糊评价[J].天津城市建设学院学报,1998,4(3):40-45. 被引量:4
  • 4曹焕光.人工神经网络原理[M].北京:气象出版社,1992..
  • 5Munholland B, Christian J. Risk assessment in construction schedules [J]. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 1999,125 (1): 28~31.
  • 6Ranasinghe, Malik, Russell,Alan D. Economic risk analysis of large engineering projects[J]. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering , 1991,18(3) :416~427.
  • 7王铁.房地产开发企业投资风险的研究[D].浙江农业大学硕士论文,1996.
  • 8Nasir D,McCabe B,Hartono L.Evaluating risk in construction-schedule(ERIC-S):Construction schedule risk model[J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,2003,129(5):518-527.
  • 9Su Dongye,Robert L.NPV-at-risk method in infrastructure project investment evaluation[J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,2000,126(3):227-233.
  • 10Jiang Genmou.Quantitative risk analysis of real estate investment based on simulation techniques[C]//Proceedings of CRIOCM 2005 International Research Symposium on Advancement of Construction Management and Real Estate,2005:430-434.

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