我国谷物发展态势与未来展望

CEREAL DEVELOPMENT POSTURE AND FUTURE EXPECTATION IN CHINA

该文对我国谷物生产与消费态势进行了分析，对未来谷物供需进行了展望。结果表明，近年我国在世界谷物生产中的地位得到了提升，谷物生产结构正在根据消费需求的变化而发生明显变化，我国谷物产量的持续增长，不仅保障了国内谷物价格的相对稳定，同时也对世界食物安全作出了贡献。根据预测结果，未来我国谷物将继续保持增长势头，2010年和2015年全国谷物产量有望分别达到4．63亿t和4．87亿t左右，其增产的70％-75％来自于玉米。2015年前，我国的谷物生产能够满足国内的基本消费需求，不会出现中国向国际市场大量购买谷物的情况。

Analysis is carried out on cereal production and consumption posture and expectation is conducted on cereal future requirement and supply. The results indicate that in the recent years China＇s location in the world cereal production was upgraded, the structure of cereal production was changing distinctively according to the changes in consumption requirement. The sustainable increase of cereal output in China not only insures the relative stableness of domestic cereal price, but also makes contribution to world grain safety. According to forecasting, cereal in China will maintain increasing tendency in the future. In 2010 and 2015, the cereal output all over China will reach about 463 million ton and 487 million ton respectively, 70%-75% of the increase will come from corn. Before 2015, the cereal production will satisfy domestic consumption and requirement basically, and large quantity purchase of cereal in international market will not appear.