安徽省地质灾害气象预警预报研究

Study on Geological Hazard Meteorological Forecasting and Alarming in Anhui Province

根据安徽省地质灾害特点及与气象条件的关系，从气象因素和地质灾害隐患入手，逐步深化研究降水和地质环境与地质灾害发生的关系，由浅入深，在尝试和探索中开展安徽省地质灾害气象预警预报研究。建立了安徽省地质灾害气象预警预报模型及预报系统，提出了基于GIS的地质灾害气象预警方法，为提高安徽省地质灾害的气象预报水平奠定了一定的基础，并通过对2004—2007年的地质灾害实例验证预报取得了较好的效果。

Based on the characteristics of geological hazards and its relation with meteorological condition in Anhui province,the relation of precipitation and geological environment with geological hazards is studied in the light of meteorological factors and potential geological hazards. A tentative study is made on geological hazard meteorological forecasting and alarming in Anhui province. The geological hazard meteorological forecasting and alarming model and system of Anhui province are established and GIS-based geological hazard meteorological forecasting method is presented which lay a basis for improving geological hazard meteorological forecasting. The forecasting cases of geological hazards in the period from 2004 to 2007 verified the good efficiency of the system.