黑龙江省低温冷害发生规律及预测研究

Study on Occurrence and Forecast of Low Temperature and Cold Damage in Heilongjiang Province

利用黑龙江省74个气象站35年（1971—2005年）夏季平均气温资料，分析了黑龙江省低温冷害的发生规律，并运用灰色分析模型对黑龙江省未来低温冷害的发生情况做了预测。研究结果表明：黑龙江省低温冷害20世纪70年代最为严重，80年代后呈下降趋势；在空间分布上，黑龙江省低温冷害的平均发生频率南部大于北部，严重冷害表现为北部大于南部，一般冷害则表现为西南部大于全省其它地方；低温冷害的发生与厄尔尼诺现象有较好的相关性，厄尔尼诺年及其前后年为低温冷害的多发年；2009—2020年黑龙江省大部分地区会发生低温冷害，2020～2030年发生区域和频率有所减少，2030年后发生频率与地区明显减少。

According to 35 years＇ （1971 -2005 ） summer average temperature data from 74 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang province, analyzed and low temperature and the regularity of low temperature and cold damage in Heilongjiang province is cold damage in the future are forecasted by using grey model. The results show that low temperature and cold damage in Heilongjiang were the most serious in the 1970s and decreased after the 1980s. The spatial distribution indicates that frequency of low temperature and cold damage in the south of Heilongjiang province is higher than that in the north and the frequency of serious low temperature and cold damage in the north is higher than that in the south. The frequency of general low temperature and cold damage in the southwest is higher than that in other areas of the province. The occurrence of low temperature and cold damage is correlated with El Nino. Low temperature and cold damage mainly occur in the El Nino year and the year before or after the El Nino year. Low temperature and cold occurrence areas and frequency will decrease during damage will occur in most areas during 2009 N 2020. The 2020 - 2030 and obviously decrease after 2030