基于灰色系统理论的自贡旅游需求预测与分析

Zigong Tourists’Needs Forecast and Analysis Based on the Theory of Grey System

旅游市场潜力预测是旅游经济研究、旅游项目投资、旅游规划与管理等的重要内容。文章针对旅游需求问题进行了研究,提出了基于灰色系统理论的自贡旅游需求预测模型,并采用残差检验、后残差检验和关联度方法对模型进行了分析。同时,以自贡旅游需求发展为例,根据其旅游历史数据,运用灰色数列GM(1,2)模型对未来该地旅游需求进行预测,通过残差检验、关联度检验分析和事实比较,预测结果数据精确,具有广泛的实用性。

Tourists＇ needs forecast is the important aspect of tourists＇economy study, project investment, layout and management. The article studied tourists＇ needs, pointed out the Zigong tourists＇ needs forecast model based on the grey system theory, analyze the model with residual test, after residual test and relation. Taking Zigong for instance, and basing on the dates of the latest years, the grey GM （1,1）model was used to forecast the tourists＇ needs, the residual test method and relation analysis was used to test the model. We found that all the models are account to requirement, and the forecasting data is precise.