煤矿安全生产中人的行为影响因子系统动力学(SD)仿真分析

A System Dynamics(SD) Simulation Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Human Behavior in Coalmine Work Safety

在构建影响人的安全行为因素因果关系的基础上,运用系统动力学(SD)理论和方法,对影响人的安全行为关键因素进行动态预测,并通过仿真计算、对比分析安全投入增加对系统安全水平的影响。应用该方法建立的煤矿生产中人的安全行为指标水平模型,以求证安全投入与人的安全行为水平的相关性,为煤矿安全管理决策提供一种新的思路,亦有助于政府和煤矿企业科学地明确安全投入方向,降低人因事故率,提高煤矿生产的安全水平。

Based on the causality of the factors influencing human safety behaviors, key factors influencing human safety behaviors were forecasted with the method of System Dynamics （SD） theory. Through simulation calculation, the relationship between the rising rate of safety investment and system safety level was comparative analyzed, and a model of indicating the human safety behavior level was given in order to verify the correlativity of safety input and human safety behavior level. The studying result may provide a new thinking for coalmine safety management, help governments and coal mine enterprises to scientifically decide the direction of safety investment, and helpfully lower accident rates and improve safety production level of coalmine.