美国有关人民币汇率立法的晚近动向与对策

Analysis on U.S.Recent Legislative Moves for Renminbi Exchange Rate

2007年,美国参众两院针对人民币汇率提出了十几份法案,这些法案与此前的法案相比体现出不同的特征,其中的一个突出内容是把人民币汇率问题直接或间接地提交WTO解决。美国若根据GATT第15条第4款向WTO申诉,不仅有悖于国际经济秩序的安排和IMF与WTO的国际分工,而且我国的汇率安排也不构成对GATT目的实现之妨碍。美国若依据反补贴协定禁止性补贴的规定,把人民币汇率问题提交WTO,或径直由美国采取反补贴措施,则难以满足财政资助、利益给予和专向性等标准。美国这些举动胜算不大,但我国应对这些动态进行跟踪研究,做好准备。

In 2007, U.S. parliament raised more than a dozen of bills targeted at Renminbi exchange rate, which exhibited different features from former ones. A protruding content among the bills is to settle the dispute of Renminbi exchange rate in WTO directly or indirectly. If U. S. appeals to WTO according to Article 15.4 of GATT, this is inconsistent with the arrangement of international economic order and the division between IMF and WTO, and the exchange rate arrangement in China also does not frustrate the purposes of GATT. If U. S. appeals to WTO depending on prohibited subsidy in SCM Agreement, or takes domestic countervailing measures directly, the U.S. is not likely to meet the requirements of financial contribution, granting of benefit and specificity. The U.S. moves do not have much chance of victory, but China should keep sight on the moves to stand ready.