应用BIOCLIM生态位模型对松材线虫传入云南的风险评估

Assessment of Risk of Introduction of Pine Wood Nematode,Bursaphelenchus xylophilus in Yunnan Province Using BIOCLIM Ecological Niche Model

基于松材线虫的生物学和生态学特性,利用松材线虫在东亚的已知分布点数据和亚洲地区的19个生物气候变量图层,筛选出松材线虫适生性分布的主要生物气候变量。应用DIVA-GIS软件中的生态位模型BIOCLIM预测了该线虫在云南省的地理分布图,结合各县(市)寄主分布面积,对此地图栅格进行计算、统计分析,得到松材线虫在各县(市)的分布和适生程度。通过综合分析,确定了各县(市)风险等级:最高风险5县(市);很高风险41县(市);高度风险38县(市);中度风险22县(市);低度风险23县(市)。进一步利用ArcGIS9.0软件绘制出了松材线虫在云南的适生图和在129个县级单位的风险级别图。建议划定云南省北纬23°以北与北纬26°以南之间地区为主要防护区,其中瑞丽市及其疫点周边地区,广南县、师宗县、罗平县、丘北县以及普洱市北纬23°以北的地区及该市北纬23°以南的思茅区为重点防护区。

Based on the biological and ecological characteristics of the pine wood nematode （PWD）, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus （Steiner ＆ Buhrer, 1934） Nikle, 1970 , known distribution in East Asian, and 19 bioclimatic covariates of Asian that retlect the distribution of this nematode, the potentially suitable areas for establishment of this pest in Yunnan Province were predicted by using DIVA - GIS/BIOCLIM ecological niche modeling. The distribution and suitability degree of each town, county or city was obtained through calculating and statistically analyzing the map grid according to the host pine distribution area of each town, county or city. The results showed that 5 counties （cities） （Guangnan, Shizong, Luoping, Qiubei, and Ruili City） were in the highest risk degree; 41 in very higher risk degree; 38 in high risk degree; 22 in moderate risk degree; and 23 in low risk degree for this nematode establishment. Further, the suitability and risk assessment map of 129 counties and cities in Yunnan Province was made by using the ArcGIS 9. 0. The delimitation of protective area was suggested that the area between N 23°and N 26° was as the main protective area in Yunnan Province to B. x; Ruili City and the counties around epidemic focus of PWD of Ruili City, 4 other highest risk counties （ Guangnan, Shizong, Luoping and Qiubei） and the regions of the north of Purr City N 23°and Simao district lying in south of N 23° of this city were as the priority protective regions.