基于假设检验的地震动强度(烈度)速报方法

A hypothesis testing based method for seismic intensity rapid assessment by strong ground motion parameters

地震发生后数分钟内,快速、可靠地判别出地震动强度(烈度)的空间分布,用以估计不同地区的受灾程度,可以为政府开展应急救援并合理分配救援力量提供决策依据,保证救援人员及时、准确地到达极震区并展开搜救,以减少生命财产损失。本文基于统计学中的假设检验方法,对历史震害资料进行统计,提出了一种利用强地震动参数判别地震动强度(烈度)的方法。比较结果表明,本方法所确定的地震动强度(烈度)与实际震害烈度对应较好,能较真实地反映实际震害情况。

That the distribution of earthquake damage could be reliably estimated within several minutes after a big earthquake, would be very important for the government to make emergent response in time and to distribute the rescue forces to the seismic areas, which could mitigate the loss of lives and properties in the most efficient way. Intensity rapid assessment is also very useful for public information, loss estimation, earthquake planning, and post-earthquake engineering and scientific analyses. Based on the hypothesis testing in statistics and actual seismic intensity data of three big historic earthquakes in California, a method of estimating seismic intensity rapidly by strong ground motion parameters is presented in the article. Comparisons indicate that this method is more reliable to establish the relationship between strong ground motion parameters and seismic intensities, which show the different degrees of earthquake damage. This method has already been used in Ground Motion Fast Reporting Program in China's Mainland.