近期美元逆市走强的原因分析

Sources for unexpected rise in dollar

近期,在全球金融危机、经济衰退的的背景下,美元逆市走强。该文对其背后的原因进行了多层次的分析,认为从表面上看,美元逆市走强是美元需求增速高于供给增速的结果,深层原因则基于美元的国际地位和美国较强的政治经济军事实力,也可能有一定的战略意图。因此,预计近期美元将维持强势,但在恐慌稳定之后可能转为下跌。

The recent strengthening of the dollar is unexpected, given the backdrop of the global financial crisis and economic recession. This paper makes a multi-layered analysis on the sources leading to the stronger dollar. According to the author, the superficial reason lies in the fact that the rise in demand for the dollar surpassed the rise in supply; the fundamental source is based on the global position of the dollar and the US political and economic power, and may have some strategic intention. Therefore, it is expected that the dollar will remain strong in the near future and may fall back after the panic settles.