基于承载力理论作物生产发展生态承载潜力评价

The Eco-potentiality Evaluation of Crop Production Development Based on Carrying Capacity Theory

依据承载力理论,以从生态角度指导短期种植业结构调整在区域间的方向性布局为目的,提出了作物生产发展生态承载潜力的概念,同时为利用该概念实施评价提出了由资源承载潜力和环境承载潜力2类共5个指标组成的评价指标体系,确立了指标意义、指标量化模型以及综合评价方法。选取8种粮经作物以及华东地区6个省份进行了实证分析。评价结果反映了同一作物在不同区域生产发展的生态承载潜力和同一区域不同作物之间比较的生态承载潜力,对短期作物种植结构调整具备一定的借鉴意义。

The study bases on the theory of carrying capacity, for the sake of guiding directional layout of crop structure adjustment in different regions. The concept that the eco-carrying potentiality evaluation of crops production development was put forward. In order to implement the evaluation using this concept, the system of evaluation indexes which includes two sorts five indexes was presented, such as resource carrying potentiality and environment carrying potentiality. Moreover,the production significance of indexes and the calculative method and the synthetic evaluation method were built up. Eight crops and six regions in Eastern China were selected for the evaluation. The result scientifically and objectively reflected the production eco-carrying potentiality of one crop in different regions and different crops in one region, which could give some advice to crops structure adjustment.