基于信息羊群行为的商业银行投资理性与非理性分析

An Analysis of Rational and Non-rational Investment in Commercial Banks Based on the Herding Behaviors in Information

商业银行分为大型商业银行和中小型商业银行两类。两类银行经理人投资决策行为受群体信息及信息精确度的影响,中小型商业银行经理人因对自身信息处理能力信心不足,过度相信大型商业银行经理人投资决策能力。对此,借鉴国外学者关于信念精确度研究的概念,应用贝叶斯法则,研究了群体信息及信息精确度影响大型商业银行理性和非理性行为的程度,以及大型商业银行投资行为、群体信息及信念精确度促使中小型商业银行理性和非理性行为产生的过程。

In this paper, the commercial banks are divided into large-scale, small and medium-sized commercial banks, and the bank manager＇ s investment decision behavior in these two kinds are affected by group information and their precision. The managers of small and medium-sized commercial banks have an excessive belief in the investment decision-making capacity of large-sized commercial banks managers, because they lack confi- dence in their information-handling capacity. Because of that, the concept of beliefs precision studied by foreign scholars is taken as reference in this paper, and Bayesian rule is used to analyze the group information and the impact on the Rational and non-rational behavior in commercial banks by information precision, then the invest-ment of large-scale commercial banks, the rational and irrational behavior in small and medium-sized commercial banks spurred by group information and their precision are researched in the paper.