汇率制度选择的理论脉络与最新进展

The Basic Theory and the Latest Development in the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime

汇率制度选择是国际经济学界讨论最为激烈的问题且至今尚无定论。本文从历史视角对这一问题的研究进行梳理,以期明晰汇率制度理论的发展脉络。其中,从不同制度的冲击隔离特征优选汇率安排是20世纪60年代至今规范分析的主要线索,随着开放经济宏观经济学新旧范式的转换,最优汇率制度的评判标准经历了从宏观经济稳定向微观福利最大化的转变,也使研究者得以采用新工具处理这一传统问题。

The choice of exchange rate regime has been hotly debated in international economics circle and there is little consensus. Firstly I survey some of the principal development with an historical perspective . The theoretical literature regarding the choice of exchange rate regime from the angle of normative analysis has focused on the insulating properties of various regimes since 1960s. With the paradigm shift in open - economy macroeconomics, the criterion of the optimal regime debate has changed from the stability of macro - economy to welfare maximization. The New Open - economy Macroeconomics has allowed economists to tackle classical problems with new tools.