犯罪动态趋势的拟合分析

COPYING ANALYSIS OF DYNAMIC TENDENCY OF CRIME

本文在对犯罪因素进行分析的基础上 ,探讨了犯罪动态趋势拟合分析的方法——灰色动态模型。通过对海南涉枪案件的实例分析 ,表明该模型符合客观实际。分析这一问题的思路和方法同样适用于其他社会。

Based on the analysis on the criminal factor,the paper studys the method of copying dynamic tendency of crime-the gray dynamic model.The model was applied to the study on the gun crime in Hai Nan.The result shows it can conform to reality.The thinking and method can also be applied to study on other social and economic problems.\;