汶川地震后关于地震预测问题的再思考

Opinions About Earthquake Prediction After Wenchuan Earthquake

汶川地震预测失败之后,笔者仍然坚持认为,地震是可以预测的,但存在多方面的困难,从根本上来说,需要等待地球科学的突破性发展与地学探测技术的革命性进步,但当前经过进一步完善现有的观测技术,加强异常动态的调查与落实,重建地震宏观异常监视系统,完全有可能进一步提高地震预测的成功率,尽最大可能减轻地震灾害,防止汶川地震这样的惨痛历史重现。

In spite of failing in predicting Wenchuan earthquake, we still recognize that earthquakes can be predicted. But there are many difficulties, it depends on the great development of earth sciences and revolutionary progress of exploration technology ultimately. Nowadays, we can do our best to reduce earthquake disaster through perfecting monitoring technology, enhancing investigation and confirmation of anomaly, rebuilding macro-earthquake monitoring system to avoid Wenchuan earthquake disaster.