新疆棉花主要虫害预测预报模型研究

Research on Prediction Model of the Aphis in Cotton Field in Xinjiang

[目的]研究新疆棉蚜预测预报模型，为棉蚜防治提供及时准确的服务。[方法]利用1983-2005年棉蚜发生的始发期、高峰期、消退期、危害强度资料，结合对应时段的气温、湿度、降水、日照、积温等气象资料，进行数理统计分析。[结果]建立了棉蚜发生不同时段的预测模型，并由此制作出相配套的棉蚜预报、查询服务产品。[结论]预测模型准确，防治有效。

[ Objective l The research aimed to study the prediction model of the aphis in cotton in Xinjiang and provide accurately service for the prevention and cure of aphis disserve in time. [ Method] According to the data of aphis disserve stages such as beginning, fastigium, subsidise phase and disserve intensity, combining with weather condition data as temperature, humidity, rainfall, sunlight and accumulate temperature in the same period, the mathematical statistic analysis was made. [ Result] The statistics was set up for different stage of aphis disserve, and model and inquire service also be executed. [ Conclusion] The prediction model is accurately, and prevention and cure is efficiently.