太阳磁场磁性指数的变化对南亚夏季风环流强度的影响

Influence of magnetic index change in solar magnetic field on intensity of South Asia summer monsoon circulation

利用太阳黑子相对数资料,根据太阳磁场磁性特征建立了太阳磁场磁性指数时间序列,并利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料建立了1948-2006年的南亚夏季风环流强度指数,对两者之间存在的可能相关关系作了分析。结果表明:太阳磁场磁性变化是激发南亚夏季风环流强度年代际变化的重要原因,当太阳北(南)半球磁场磁极为N(S)极为前导时,南亚夏季风环流强度较强,当太阳北(南)半球磁场磁极为S(N)极为前导时,南亚夏季风环流强度较弱,太阳磁场磁性强度的变化超前于南亚夏季风环流强度变化5年左右。两者之间的这种相关关系,为南亚夏季风环流强度年代际变化方面的预测提供了理论依据。

Using the data of the sunspot number and based on its characteristics the time sequence of the magnetic index of the sunspot magnetic field is established. The intensity of the South Asia summer monsoon circulation index is established using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1948to 2006 and the relationship between them is analyzed. The results show that the magnetic changed in the solar magnetic field is important reason of the interdecadal change of the South Asian summer monsoon intensity. When the magnetic of the lead sunspots in N （S） in solar north （south） hemisphere the South Asia summer monsoon intensity become stronger and when the magnetic of the lead sunspots in S（N） in solar north（south） hemisphere the South Asia summer monsoon intensity become weaker. The change in the solar magnetic field is 5 years earlier than the change of the South Asia summer monsoon circulation. These conclusions have important value to the forecast of the interdecadal change of the South Asia summer monsoon intensity.