中国经济增长中的产业结构变迁和技术进步

Structural Change and Technical Advance in China's Economic Growth

本文将技术进步和产业结构变迁从要素生产率中分解出来,实证度量了产业结构变迁对中国经济增长的贡献,并将其与技术进步的贡献相比较。实证研究表明,在改革开放以来的三十年中,虽然产业结构变迁对中国经济增长的贡献一度十分显著,但是随着市场化程度的提高,产业结构变迁对经济增长的贡献呈现不断降低的趋势,逐渐让位于技术进步,即产业结构变迁所体现的市场化的力量将逐步让位于技术进步的力量。此外,研究也发现,结构变迁效应的减弱并不表明市场化改革的收益将会消失,某些发展和体制的因素仍然阻碍着资源配置效率进一步提高。从这个层面来看,我国完善市场机制的工作仍然任重而道远。

This article empirically measures the effect of structural change of industries on China＇s economic growth compared to the impact of technical advance on China＇s economic growth, using decomposed expressions of labor productivity and total factor productivity. The study illustrates that the impact of structural effect on the economic growth is decreasing during the thirty years since China＇s economic reform in 1978, gradually exceeded by the impact of technical advance, which means that technical advance will play a more important role than market mechanism in the future. However, our study also indicates the decreasing of the impact of structural change on economic isn＇t equivalent to the disappearance of gains from market reform. Some of the institutional and developmental factors retard the improvement of allocative efficiency. In this perspective, China still has a great deal to improve the efficiency of market mechanism.