技术增长率的部门差异和经济增长率的“驼峰形”变化

Sectoral Difference in Growth Rate of Technology and Change in Economic Growth Rate with Hump-shape

迄今的长期经济增长历史表明,经济增长速度具有"驼峰形"特征,即中等收入时增长速度快,人均收入水平高时次之,收入水平低时最慢。经济增长的历史同时表明,增长速度快的时期几乎都伴随着经济结构剧烈变化。本文试图在新古典理论框架内,构建经济增长模型来解释驼峰形特征以及促成它的经济结构变化。数值实验表明,模型结果合理地解释"驼峰形"的经济事实,而且与Kaldor事实和Kuznetz事实同时相容。

In the well-known economic history, we find there would be a hump-shaped fact of economic growth rate. Growth is slow when per capita GDP is low or high, while quick when per capita GDP is at the middle level. The history of economic growth shows at the same time that the eras of the quick growth are almost these of violent changes in economic structure. This paper tries to construct a three-sector t~.owth model in the neoclassical growth framework to explain the hump-shaped fact and the structural changes behind it. The numerical simulation shows that the results of the model may combine Kaldor facts with Kuznets facts and explain the ＂hump-shaped＂ economic facts reasonably.