中国FDI区位分布的空间效应研究

Empirical Analysis on Spatial Linkages in FDI across China

目前关于我国FDI区位选择因素的大部分实证研究都是建立在双边框架内,考虑第三方效应并从城市角度进行的研究还少有涉及。本文在新近发展起来的"第三国效应"理论基础上,运用空间面板计量方法,对1985—2005年期间我国30个省市区的154个地级及以上城市的FDI区位分布的空间效应进行检验。发现全样本154个城市的FDI之间存在显著的空间效应,周边城市的FDI增量可以增加某城市的FDI流入量,周边城市的市场规模越大某城市的FDI流入越多,各城市的FDI流入也受到周边城市FDI不可测因素的影响。对三大地区内部、三大地区之间及长、珠三角与三大地区之间等不同子样本的FDI空间效应的检验,发现东、中、西部地区FDI的主导类型分别为集聚垂直复合型、受限的集聚垂直复合型和水平型。

At present most of the empirical researches on the locational choice of FDI in China are usually based on bilateral framework. There are few articles focusing on spatial effects and city-level data. Based on the ＂third-country effects＂, using spatial panel technique and a data set on 154 cities during the period of 1985--2005 in China, this paper estimates both a spatial lag and spatial error model to examine the spatial effects for FDI in China. We find that spatial linkages dominate in China. A city＇s FDI inflow increases with the FDI inflow of neighboring cities and its market potential is affected by a shock to FDI in neighboring cities. Among the sub-samples including within different regions （eastern, center, and western regions）, between regions （between the eastern and the center, the center and the western, the western and the center, as well as between Yangtze River Delta ＆ Pearl River Delta and the eastern, the center separately）, we find that the dominated forms FDI behavior in the eastern, center, and western regions are vertical specialization with agglomeration, vertical specialization with limited agglomeration, and pure horizontal respectively.