武器装备敏感性分析方法综述

Review on weapons and equipment sensitivity analysis methods

武器装备敏感性分析是武器装备发展论证的重要内容,其方法的选用对结论的合理性、分析的可行性极为重要,为此需对已有方法进行对比分析。阐述了敏感性分析方法的分类,给出了筛选方法、局部敏感性方法和全局敏感性方法的适用范围;研究了全局敏感性分析方法中回归分析法、傅立叶振幅敏感性检验法、响应曲面法、互信息指数法和Sobol指数法等的思想、原理,并对其优缺点进行详细的对比分析;提出由于Sobol指数法对效能评估模型的线性、单调性以及输入的分布特性没有专门要求,并且能分析单个输入的主效应、全效应及多个输入的交互效应对模型输出的影响,以及分析成组输入因素对输出的影响,因而相对其它方法而言更加适用于武器装备敏感性分析。

Sensitivity analysis is an emphasis in the development demonstration weapons and equipment, and it is important tor the reasonability and feasibility of the analysis to choose applicable method. So that, the comparison and analysis among the present methods are in need. Firstly, the analysis methods at present are reviewed and classified, the applicability and characteristics of screening methods, local sensitivity analysis methods and global sensitivity analysis methods are brought forward. Secondly, some research and comparison analysis on the idea, principle, advantages and restriction of global sensitivity analysis methods, such as regression analysis method, Fourier amplitude sensitivity test, response surface method, mutual information index, and Sobol index method are carried on. Because the Sobol index method doesn＇ t specially demand the effectiveness model have the characteristics that linear, monotony, nor any special restriction on the distribution function of inputs, so that it is used to analyze the influence on the model＇ s output by main effect, total effect of single input, and the interaction effect of multiple inputs, and also it can used to analyze the influence on the model＇ s output by inputs in groups. So that the conclusion is drawn, that Sobol index method is relatively a feasible method for sensitivity analysis of weapons and equipment.