新的历史起点:中国经济的非均衡表现与走势

A New Starting Point in History:Chinese Economy's Imbalanced Performance and Trend

2008年,中国经济在改革开放三十周年之后,取得了举世瞩目的增长绩效。但是,中国过去的经济改革采取了渐进推进的方式,中国经济中的三次产业结构,宏观总需求结构,金融结构,中、东、西地区结构,各阶层收入结构以及内外经济结构的非均衡现象日益突出。中国经济中的金融部门、垄断部门、改革滞后的公共服务产品供应部门的低效率阻碍了增长效率的进一步提高。以美国为代表的虚拟经济与实体经济非均衡最终导致全球金融危机的爆发,中国金融体系的低效使得其抵御当前全球经济金融风险的能力大大降低,与金融危机相伴随的全球需求的下降,又使得高度依赖外需推动的中国经济增长面临挑战。中国经济又一次处在十字路口:我们如何在前三十年改革和开放的基础上,推进金融领域、政府领域、第三产业和公共服务产品供应领域的改革和开放,在这些领域培植多元经济主体,增强竞争,均衡结构,增加内需,增进效率。其中,继续通过大规模的劳动力转移,改变二元经济现象,提高全体人民的人力资本投资,在改变劳动力结构的基础上,通过融全球化、工业化、城市化为一体的高速增长,实现生产要素在各产业和各地区间的动态优化配置,是未来三十年中国经济的基本趋势。

To year 2008, 30 years after the implementation of reform and open policy, China has achieved remarkable economic growth. However, China adopted a gradual strategy in the economic reform and more and more non-equilibrium have been found in several aspects, such as the industrial structure, aggregate demand structure, financial structure and regional structure. Moreover, the low efficiency in financial sector, monopolistic sector and public sector has become obstacles for further economic growth. Faced with the worldwide financial crisis caused by the non-equilibrium between virtual economy and real economy in the United States, China＇s financial sector has low capacity to defend because of its low efficiency. Meanwhile, the decline of demand accompanying the financial crisis becomes a challenge to China＇ s economic growth, which depends heavily on foreign demand. China is in cross roads once more： how to push the reform in financial sector, government sector, public sector so that there could be more economic entities in these sectors to enhance competition, balance structure, increase domestic demand and improve efficiency. Besides, rural-urban migration is still an important power to change dual economy and increase the investment of human capital. On the basis of improving the labor structure, through a rapid economic growth integrating globalization, industrialization and urbanization, to allocate productive factors dynamically and efficiently in various industries and regions is a fundamental tendency in future 30 years in China.