多哈回合的进展、困境及其原因探析

Doha Round:Overviews and Prospects

多哈回合自启动以来已艰难地跋涉了近七个年头。尽管谈判已有相当的进展和积累,但是随着前不久小型部长级会议在农业特别保障措施等焦点议题上的再次受挫,今年结束谈判的希望基本落空。事实上,议题的复杂性、发展水平的差异性、利益取向的多元化,特别是WTO成员内部结构的权力变化导致"联盟化"博弈等诸多因素,正是多哈回合旷日持久、一波三折、陷入困境的主要原因。在世界经济增速减缓的背景下,如何重整旗鼓,破解难题,使2009年成为多哈回合的终结年,这是WTO所有成员面临的重大挑战。

Doha Round has lasted nearly seven years since it launched in November 2001.Despite the considerable progresses of the negotiation,it seems that the round is going to fail to be concluded in this year,as'July 2008 Meeting'failed to make any agreement in agricultural negotiation again.There are many factors that make Doha Round failure to achieve success,such as complexity of the agenda,difference of the development levels and diversification of the interests orientation of the member countries, especially the'coalition'game caused by the transformation of WTO members' structure and power.How to conclude the Doha Round successfully at a compromised and balanced basis by the end of 2009 is also a big challenge to all the WTO members.