吉林省一代玉米螟发生的气象条件适宜程度等级预报

Prediction of Meteorological Suitability Grades for Occurrence of First Generation of Corn Borer in Jilin Province

将玉米螟发生的气象条件划分为5个等级:1级:气象条件有利于玉米螟大发生;2级:气象条件有利于玉米螟中等偏重发生;3级:气象条件有利于玉米螟中等发生;4级:气象条件有利于玉米螟中等偏轻发生;5级:气象条件不利于玉米螟发生。利用相关法确定影响玉米螟发生的主要气象因子,假设每个气象因子对玉米螟发生程度的影响是线性的,将每个影响因子对玉米螟发生的影响程度相叠加,建立了吉林省一代玉米螟发生的气象适宜程度等级预报方程。利用近26 a来吉林省玉米螟发生的历史虫害资料与气象资料对方程进行检验,并对2007年吉林省玉米螟发生气象条件适宜程度进行预报,效果较好。可达到从气象角度对玉米螟发生进行监测和预报的目的。

The meteorological conditions for the occurrence of corn borer were divided into 5 grades. It was supposed that each meteorological factor was linear with the occurrence of corn borer and all of factors were addable. The predict equation of meteorological suitability grade for the occurrence of the first generation of corn borer in Jilin Province was constructed. The equation was validated by the historic data of meteorology and occurrence of the corn borer in recent 26 years. The meteorological suitability grade for the occurrence of the corn borer in 2007 was predicted. The results showed that the model could be used for monitoring and prediction of meteorological suitability grade for the occurrence of corn borer.