飞行间隔安全评估研究

Research on Safety Assessment of Flight Separation

首先概述了飞行间隔安全评估研究中常用的概念,然后从REICH模型、交叉航路模型、概率论模型、随机分析模型、EVENT模型和RASRAM模型6种常用碰撞风险模型的角度,分析了各个模型的优缺点和各自的适用范围,分析结果表明飞行间隔安全评估中的关键问题为:模型的限制、管制意图和安全评价,并在此基础上分析了飞行间隔安全评估未来的研究方向。

The main concepts of flight separation safety assessment are present： flight separation, separation minima, conflict, airmiss, and collision. Then the flight separation safety assessments are addressed in detail from six main models： REICH model, intersecting rout model, probability model, stochastic analysis model, EVENT model and RASRAM model, and then the application scope, merits and drawbacks of each model are analyzed. The results show that the main key problems of safety assessment of flight separation are the conditional limit of the model, the reasonable intent and safety evaluation. Furthermore the tendencies of the research in the future are put forward： the flight separation safety assessment based on communication, navigation, surveillance （CNS） performance, the avoidance system how to reduce the collision risk, and human factors how to influence the collision risk.