系统可靠性的贝叶斯网络评估方法

A Method for System Reliabiltiy Assessment Based on Bayesian Networks

针对现有组合法与状态法在可靠性评估方法中的局限性,对基于贝叶斯网络的系统可靠性评估新方法进行了研究。运用该方法进行可靠性评估,不但能计算出系统的可靠性指标,而且能方便地给出一个或几个部件对系统可靠性影响的大小,识别系统的薄弱环节。结合故障树方法建立系统可靠性评估的贝叶斯网络模型,并用实例阐述了贝叶斯网络方法进行系统可靠性评估的有效性。同时通过对贝叶斯网络的条件失效概率与系统可靠性评估中常用重要度指标的对比分析表明,贝叶斯网络的推理算法更便于查找系统的薄弱环节。

Researching the application of Bayesian network to the system reliability assessment for the limits of combination method and state method in reliability assessment.The method is able not only to compute the system reliability indices but also to analyze easily the effects of a certain components on the system reliability to recognize the vulnerable positions of the system. A method of constructing Bayesian networks with the ideology of fault tree is proposed to assess system reliability and the validity of the method proposed is verfied by exemplification. The results of two examples prove the validity and superiority of the method in the application of the system reliability assessment. Contrasting and analyzing the conditional failure probability of Bayesian network and the importance measurements usually used in system reliability engineering getting the result that the inference arithmetic is more suitable to recognize the vulnerable positions of system.