中、日、韩潜在产出的估计与比较分析

The Estimate and Comparative Analysis of Potential Output in China,Japan and Korea

利用生产函数方法对中、日、韩三国的潜在产出进行估计,并以潜在产出为基础对三国的经济进行比较分析,其研究结果表明,从人均实际产出和潜在产出水平看,中国与日本和韩国的差距较大,并且日本整体水平最高,韩国增长最快;三国的产出缺口变动与景气波动基本一致,中国的一致效果相对较差,韩国的一致效果相对较好;从三国各要素对潜在经济增长的贡献来看,三国资本和劳动的贡献率均呈下降趋势,中国和韩国的TFP贡献率呈上升趋势,而日本的TFP贡献率呈下降趋势。

The paper estimates the potential output of China, Japan and Korea with production function method, and compares their economy based on the potential output. The research shows that the real out potential output per people in China are lower than those in Japan and Korea, and Korea has the fastest growth while Japan has the highest level. The changes of output gaps are consistent to the business cycles in the three countries. The capital and labor contribute less and less in all countries. The contribution rate of TFP is ascending in China and Korea, but it is descending in Japan.