综合视角下的宏观金融效率实证研究

Empirical Research on Macro Financial Efficiency in Synthesized Perspective

宏观金融效率为研判中国金融发展状况这一极具争议的问题提供了有效的视角,但其实证研究还处在单指标——因果检验与间接度量阶段。本文提出:宏观金融效率实证研究的实质是一种综合评价,直接度量宏观金融效率是可行的。宏观金融效率实证研究体系涵盖思路、指标与方法三个方面,其构建应综合金融发展理论、金融脆弱性与金融生态等研究成果,实现由单指标到多指标、因果检验到线性与非线性方法相结合的两大转变。宏观金融效率实证研究的深入仍需相关理论与方法的进一步整合与推动。

Macro financial efficiency provides an effective perspective to gauge Chinese financial development. However, the empirical study concerning macro-financial efficiency is only in stage of single indicator casualty test and indirect metrics. This paper argues that the empirical research concerning macro-financial efficiency is indeed a synthesized evaluation, and it＇s possible to conduct direct measurement. The empirical research system covers guidance, indices, and approaches. And many theories, such as financial development theory, financial fragility and financial ecology, shed lights on the empirical research system. For further progress, the empirical research should adopt multi indicators, and combine linearity with non-linearity in terms of method. Also, its development begs for deep integration of related theories and methods.