逐步回归法在黄河下游洪水水位预测中的应用

Application of stepwise regression method in flood level forecast of the lower Yellow River

利用黄河下游5个水文站的多年水位资料,用逐步回归法建立艾山站水位回归方程,并对艾山水文站的水位进行预测,来检验方程的准确性。同时与多元线性回归分析得到的结果对比,显示出逐步回归法具有更精确,计算误差小的优点,能够提高黄河下游长期洪水预报的精度。

Based on the water level data of many years on the five hydrologic station of the lower yellow river,the paper establishes the regression equation of Aishan station by using the stepwise regression method,verifies the accuracy of the equation by forecasting the water level of Aishan station. Compared with the results of the multiple linear regression method,the results of the stepwise regression method are more precise,which could improve the precision of long-term flood forecasting in the lower Yellow River.