摘要
以地区用水指标为基础,利用系统动力学方法研究了地区水资源利用系统.通过SD模型分析了地区水资源利用系统中的主要因素及它们之间的相互联系,确定了它们之间的定量关系,对地区用水的供需趋势进行预测、分析.通过应用实例,对某一地区的水资源利用进行模拟仿真,并分析了未来某些时期该地区水资源利用的状况,其结果对于该地区水资源利用系统的可持续发展的管理具有一定指导意义.
The paper investigates the water resources utilization system in some regions by system dynamics on the basis of regional water utilization indexes. The main factors and their relationship in regional water resource utilization system through SD model are analyzed. The quantitative relationship among them and the region supply-demand trend are presented. Finally, through a application example, the paper simulates the water resource utilization in some region and analyzes the situation of this region in future. The achieved result has certain guiding significance of sustainable development for this region water resource utilization system.
出处
《江南大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2008年第5期615-618,共4页
Joural of Jiangnan University (Natural Science Edition)
基金
中国博士后科学基金项目(2005038201)
关键词
系统动力学
水资源利用
预测模型
系统分析
system dynamics
water resource utilization
prediction model
system analysis
