基于系统动力学的产业结构演变规律仿真模拟实验研究

The Simulative Experimental Research on the Law of the Industry Structure's Evolution Based on System Dynamics

本文运用系统动力学方法构建了产业结构演进规律系统动态模型,并利用中国近20年(1986-2005)的数据,对三次产业产值结构演变进行了模拟,而后对中国产业结构的演化规律、特点、演变动因、模拟的真实程度、模拟的作用等进行讨论分析。

The article establishes a SD model of the law of industry structure＇ s evolution by system dynamics. Making use of the data from 1986 to 2005 in China, the authors simulate the evolution of three industries＇ output. Then, the authors analyse the law and inducement the reality degree and function of simulation. of industry structure＇ s evolution in China, and discusse