摘要
探讨了Markov转移矩阵和GM（1，1）灰色模型预测陕西森林火灾趋势的方法。并预测2000年前，森林火灾基本处于B级稳定状态，最小级A出现于1998年，最大级C可能出现于2000年。
The method for Shaanxi forest fire prediction by using transformable matrix Markov and grey modle GM (1, 1) was studied. Using this method, it could predict that the forest fire would generally remain in steady grade B before year of 2000,the minimum grade A would appear in 1998 and the maximum grade C would prodbably appear in year of 2000.
出处
《陕西林业科技》
北大核心
1997年第3期58-62,共5页
Shaanxi Forest Science and Technology
关键词
森林火灾
发生趋势
预测
Forest fire
Grey model
Tendency prediction
