万家寨水库汛期防洪调度风险分析

Risk analysis for the flood-prevention operation of Wanjiazhai Reservoir

在对万家寨水库汛期进行分期的基础上,运用蒙特卡洛(Mento-Carlo)随机模拟法对后汛期防洪调度风险进行分析。在风险分析中,同时考虑坝体自身风险和下游防洪风险。在不同起调水位、不同下游安全泄量的条件下,对不同频率洪水的防洪风险进行计算,并计算不同汛限水位运行方案的效益。

Based on dividing the flood season into stages, the risk analysis to flood prevention operation of later flood season is done through Mento -- Carlo stochastic simulation. In the course of risk analysis, the article considers dam body security and downstream flood control security at the same time. On the condition of different original regulating water level and different downstream safety discharge, the risk to flood prevention operation of accommodating different frequencies flood and the benefit is calculated.