台风极值风速的数值模拟及分布模型

Distribution models of extreme typhoon winds based on numerical simulation of wind data

为克服台风统计样本的不足,以厦门为例,采用Batts风场模型,利用Monte-Carlo数值模拟方法来拟合最大风速的极值渐进分布,拟合结果与实际较吻合。通过3种极值分布函数包括极值Ⅰ型、Ⅱ型、反向威布尔分布以及广义Parato分布(GPD)拟合结果的对比分析,得到100年重现期内极值Ⅲ型分布(即反向威布尔分布)对于厦门地区年最大风速拟合最好,而极值II型的偏差较大,并给出了厦门地区不同重现期内最佳的极值风速估算值。

To address the shortage of data regarding extreme winds in P. R. China, we examined Xiamen, located on the southwestern Chinese coast, as an example. We used the Batts wind field model and the Monte-Carlo method to simulate extreme wind speed distribution models and to predict maximum wind speeds in different recurring periods. The simulated results coincided with the experical distribution function. Comparing the numerical analysis results of different extreme distributions, such as the Gumbel distribution function, the Frechet distribution function, the reverse Weibull distribution function, and the Generalized Parato distribution function, shows that the reverse Weibull distribution function provides the most precise prediction of maximum wind speed for a one-hundred-year return period, while the Frechet distribution function significantly differs from the results of all the other distribution functions. The extreme wind speeds of different return periods are estimated.