国际石油期货价格波动对我国通货膨胀率波动的影响——基于Almon PDL的经验证据

The Effects of the Fluctuations of International Oil Future Price on the Fluctuations of China's Inflation Rate:Empirical Evidence from Almon PDL Model

从定性分析来看,既存在支持国际石油价格波动会对我国通货膨胀产生影响的理由,也存在削弱这种影响的理由,因此定性分析的结论是模棱两可的;从基于Almon PDL模型的经验分析来看,经验结果支持国际石油价格波动在滞后6个月时会对我国通货膨胀率的波动产生显著影响的结论,这种影响在5%的显著性水平上统计显著,且运用Almon PDL估计模型进行样本外预测的结果与实际值很接近,因此可以得出国际石油价格波动对我国通货膨胀率波动影响显著的结论。

The qualitative analysis shows that some evidences support that international oil price fluctuations have an effect on the fluctuations of China＇ s inflation rate, however, some evidence which support the reduction of this kind of effect also exist. Therefore, the conclusion based on qualitative analysis is equivocal. But the empirical evidence of this essay which is abstracted from Almon PDL model suggests that if the fluemarion lasts for six months, such effect will be obvious and set at 5%, and the out- of- sample forecasted value is very close to the real one. So the conclusion is that the fluctuations of international oil price have a significant effect on the fluctuations of China＇ s inflation rate.