对绥靖政策的再认识——兼论“慕尼黑类比”

The Re-understanding of Appeasement Policy——An Analysis of "Munich Analogy" At the Same Time

自20世纪30年代英法对德绥靖政策失败后,"慕尼黑类比"随之盛行并流毒至今。这种盲目排斥一切妥协、鼓吹遏制和预防性战争的论调,多次影响了美国外交决策和对外关系。"慕尼黑类比"的依据是所有绥靖政策都必将失败,然而近年来很多西方学者对此提出批驳质疑,强调绥靖政策在历史上具有十分丰富的内涵。本文指出,尽管慕尼黑事件证明了错误运用绥靖政策会带来严重的危害,但绥靖也不乏成功的先例。成功的绥靖政策不仅能够化解短期冲突、保留权力并转嫁威胁,还能从长远角度塑造一种非对抗性的国家关系。因此,对绥靖政策应做具体分析,"慕尼黑类比"根据一个失败案例否定所有绥靖政策,这种以偏盖全的错误做法损害了当代国际关系的健康发展。最后本文认为恰当的国际体系安排、长远的战略眼光是绥靖政策取得成功的重要前提。

After the failure of the British and French Appeasement policy towards the Nazi Germany in 1930s,an argument called 'Munich analogy' has prevailed in international relations,having profound influence on the policy making of American government.The argument,which has formed an important basis of 'Chinese threat' theory,denies all kinds of compromise and advocates containment and military intervention.Through case studies,the present paper argues that as a general diplomatic policy,appeasement was not a new thing,although the Munich Agreement was a total conspiracy and a complete failure.The content of appeasement is compromise and therefore scenario has to be made clear before any conclusion is made.Besides preventing conflict,saving power and transferring threat to others,a successful appeasement has the most important benefit in shaping a non-antagonistic relationship between two states.But an unsuccessful appeasement inflicts a power and moral loss upon a state.Case studies prove the viewpoints above,and attest the absurdness of 'Munich analogy'.The paper further points out that appropriate international arrangement and advisable strategic foresight may be the key factors for the success of appeasement.