利用乘数法估计成都市区男男性行为人群规模的研究

STUDY ON ESTIMATION OF THE POPULATION SIZE OF MEN WHO HAVE SEX WITH MEN IN CHENGDU CITY BY MULTIPLIER METHOD

[目的]利用乘数法估计成都市区男男性行为人群规模数,为制定高危人群防治策略提供依据。[方法]在成都市区选择6家男男性行为人群聚集场所观察3d并计数,采用提名法获得调查目标人群,运用乘数法进行男男性行为人群的规模估计。[结果]成都市区男男性行为人群规模均数为11218人(95%CI:9115～14583人)。[结论]利用乘数法估计结果基本反映了成都市区男男性行为人群中相对活跃的人群规模。

[Objective] To estimate the size of men who have sex with men （MSM） in Chengdu by multiplier method, so as to provide basis for establishing prevention policy for AIDS high risk population. [Methods] Six MSM venues were selected, and nomination method was adopted to find target group in three days as well as multiplier method was used to estimate size of MSM. [Results] The average number of MSM in Chengdu was 11218 （95%CI： 9115-14583）. [Conclusion] It is feasible to use multiplier method to estimate the size of MS, asieally reveal the size of relative active part of MSM group in Chengdu.