未来人口发展失衡引发社会保障制度的战略思考

Strategic Thinking of Social Security Mechanism Triggered by Future Population Development

从未来人口发展面临问题出发,对社会保障的战略设计和体系构建面临的诸多矛盾给予了分析。阐述了使未来社会保障战略需要与未来人口发展的形势相适应,养老需求增加、劳动力相对短缺问题要与养老资源供给相平衡;面对生育率降低、人力资本供给和生产率与养老保障之间的平衡问题,必须应对老年人口规模的巨大波动。提出当前关键的问题是如何解决和应对由于人口发展所引起的社会保障资源(经济资源和人力资源)供给与需求的矛盾。

This paper analyzes a number of contradictions faced by the strategy of the social security system design and construction, from the aspect of problems in future population development, in order to adjust the situation of social security, strategy demand and population development in the future to adapt to each other. Increase of aging demand and problems of relative shortage of labor force should be balanced with endowment resource supply. When it comes to the balance between decline in birth rate, human capital supply, productivity and old-age security, we have to face up with huge fluctuations in the elderly population. This paper proposes that at present, the key question is how to deal with and solve the supply and demand contradiction of the social security resources （economic resources and human-resources） caused by the population development.