人民币汇率偏离均衡程度的估计：在宏观经济平衡框架下的分析

Estimating Divergence of RMB from Equilibrium Exchange Rate

本文运用近年由IMF经济学家发展起来的宏观经济平衡方法,从分析中国基础经常项目、目标资本项目与储蓄—投资之间的内外均衡关系入手,确定人民币真实有效汇率可能偏离中期均衡汇率的程度。通过分析和计算,我们估计2005年人民币真实有效汇率可能低估的程度为6%。应该注意的是,随着中国宏观经济的变化,人民币均衡汇率或人民币汇率偏离均衡的程度也会随之变化。

In this paper, the authors began with an analysis of internal and external equilibrium relationships among China＇ s underlying current account, target capital account and saving-investment balance, and adopted the Macroeconomic Balance Approach developed by IMF economists to estimate the level of divergence of RMB real effective exchange rate from the equilibrium one. According to the estimation, RMB was undervalued by 6%. One thing that should be noted is that the level of divergence will change as China economy evolves.