祖国大陆对台湾农产品出口增长的影响因素分析

The Mainland to Taiwan's Agricultural Products Export Growth Analysis of the Impact of Factors

利用联合国粮农组织数据库、中国海关统计数据,运用恒定市场份额(CMS模型)分析方法,对2001年以来两岸加入WTO后分两个时期进行实证分析。结果表明:进口需求因素引起祖国大陆对台湾农产品出口的快速增长;产品出口竞争力因素引起祖国大陆出口到台湾的农产品金额减少。进口需求和产品竞争力是祖国大陆对台湾农产品出口增长变动的主要影响因素,而结构变动因素的影响作用则较小。

From the analysis of factors affecting, Determine the impact of the mainland Taiwan＇s agricultural exports-led growth factors, To promote the development of cross-strait trade of agricultural products to provide basis for decision making, To strengthen bilateral cooperation in the field of agricultural trade to provide policy recommendations. Using the FAO database, to Chinese Customs statistics, Use of CMS model analysis, For the mainland to Taiwan agricultural exports growth of the analysis. The results show that： After joining the WTO, The mainland to Taiwan agricultural products export growth mainly due to factors import demand and export competitiveness factors, And the impact of structural factors are insignificant. By analyzing, Draw the following conclusions： Growth in market capacity on the mainland is Taiwan＇s farm produce export growth an important factor, Competitiveness of the decline in export growth led to dwindling. Taiwan, the mainland market have not been effective development, Cross-strait trade of agricultural products there is great potential for growth.