浙江外贸对经济增长模式转变的影响——基于协整理论的实证研究

The Impact of Foreign Trade On the Change of Economic Growth Model in Zhejiang

基于浙江省1986～2006年GDP和进出口的相关数据对浙江外贸和经济运行的轨迹进行分析,测算外贸依存度、贡献率、拉动度及弹性四个对外贸易指标对经济增长的影响。运用协整理论和格兰杰因果关系检验方法对浙江省对外贸易与经济增长的关系进行实证分析,结果表明:存在出口到经济增长的单向格兰杰因果关系。同时建立误差修正模型(ECM)得到了较好的拟合结果,为出口贸易促进经济增长假说(ELG)提供了新证据。

This paper, based on the data of GDP and such relevant data as the import and export of Zhejiang, makes an analysis of the track of its foreign trade and economic development, and measures the four indicators such as the dependence on foreign trade,contribution rates,pulling degrees and flexibility quantitatively reflecting the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth. It then utilizes the co-integration theory and Granger causality test methods to empirically analyze the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth in Zhejiang.The results show that： a unidirectional Granger causality exists between export trade and economic growth. At the same time, through the establishment of error correction model （ECM）, it concludes a good fitting result, which provides a new evidence for the hypothesis that export trade promotes economic growth （ELG）.