基于时间序列法的风电场风速预测研究

Research on Wind Speed Prediction of the Wind Farm Based on Time Series Method

针对时间序列的超短期风速预测进行研究,采用Box.Jenkins时间序列分析方法,通过Matlab软件,在达坂城风电场30m处,每10min采集一次得到的风速数据,建立ARMA模型,实现提前一小时的风速预测,为更长时间(半天、一天或两天)的风速预测提供理论基础。

By using time series analysis method of Box Jenkins, the wind speed prediction in super short period is researched. Through Matlab software, the speed data collected every 10 rain from Dabancheng wind farm in 30 meters, the ARMA model is established. The prediction can be implemented one hour in advance. This provides the theoretical basis for wind speed prediction in longer period （ half day, one day or two days）.