FDI对转型国家经济增长影响的实证研究——基于中东欧11国和独联体7国面板数据的检验

An Empirical Study on the Influence of FDI on Economic Growth in Transitional Countries:A Panel Data Analysis of 11 CEE and 7 CIS Countries

本文利用来自中东欧11国和独联体7国1995-2005年的面板数据,实证检验了流入这些转型国家的FDI对其经济增长的影响。结果显示,当期FDI流入对经济增长有积极影响,但不明显;滞后两到三期的FDI表现出较强的经济增长促进作用;FDI对转型国家经济增长促进作用的发挥,依赖于东道国稳定的宏观经济基本面和较高的市场化程度,与东道国的私有化程度关系甚微。同时,FDI的"驼峰效应"②和"累积效应"③在转型国家也表现得较为明显。最后,对中东欧国家和独联体国家的比较检验表明,在中东欧国家FDI的经济增长促进作用相对更明显。

Based on the data from 11 Central and Eastern European Countries and 7 Commonweahh of Independent States during 1995 -2005, this paper examines how the FDI inflowing into these countries influenees economic growth empirically. The results indicate that FDI of the current period has positive influence on economic growth of host countries though the influence is not very significant and FDI with a lag of 2 -3 periods has comparatively strong influence on economic growth. The result shows that steady macroeconomic situation and marketization level directly affect the growth effect while the privatization extent of host countries is weakly related to the growth effect. Meanwhile, the ＂Hump Effect＂and ＂cumulative effect＂ of FDI is obvious in these countries. The comparative test between CEE and CIS countries shows that FDI has stronger influence on economic growth in CEE countries than that in CIS countries.