中国货币状况指数与未观测货币金融状况指数——理论设计、实证方法与货币政策意义

China's Monetary Conditions Index and Non-observed Monetary and Financial Conditions Index:Theoretical Design and Methodology and Monetary Policy Inspiration

本文基于货币状况指数理论与国际实践经验,测算出1978～2005年的中国货币状况指数,首次采用未观测净金融投资占均衡GDP的比率与未观测跨境流动资金占贸易总额的比率分别替代民间利率和黑市汇率,构建了中国的未观测货币金融状况指数。在此基础上,通过拟合货币状况指数和未观测货币金融状况指数之间的关系模型发现:未观测货币金融状况指数基本能够反映未观测金融对货币运行的扰动程度,对货币政策操作和宏观调控具有实践启示。

In this paper, the author estimates China＇s Monetary Conditions Index （MCI） from 1978 to 2005 and develops the Non-observed Monetary and Financial Conditions Index （NMFCI） based on the theory of MCI and experience of international practices. The NMFCI was designed by using the scale of non-observed net financial investment to equilibrium GDP substitute informal interest rate and the scale of non-observed cross-board flow fund to trade balance to substitute the black market exchange rate at the first. After that, the author finds that NMFCI could reflect the disturbance extent of the non-observed finance to monetary movement in general by analyzing the intrinsic relationship between NMFCI and MCI in quantitative by the statistical model and the NMFCI shows the inspiration to macro-regulation and monetary policy practices.