摘要
利用小平岛观测站1993～2002年10年雾季(4～7月)的气象资料,分析了小平岛海区雾季雾的气候统计特征;采用0-1时间序列周期分析的方法,对雾的持续时间进行了讨论;利用双向差分模式建模,并进行外延,预报未来出雾的日期,结果较为理想。作为该海区雾的短期预报试验,结果令人鼓舞。
Ten-year （1993 - 2002） meteorological data of Xiaoping island observing station during fog season （Apr. -Jul.） have been used to analyse the statistic characteristic of fogs in Xiaoping island sea area during fog season. We also used method of 0-1 time series periodic analysis to discuss fogs＇duration. Two-way difference model was set up to forcast fogs in future, and the result is not bad. As the short-range forcast test of fogs in that area, the result is exciting.
出处
《海洋预报》
2008年第4期15-19,共5页
Marine Forecasts
关键词
小平岛海区
雾
统计特征分析
0—1序列周期分析
双向差分
预报
Xiaoping island sea area
fogstatistic characteristic analysis
0-1 time series periodic analysis
two-way difference
forecast
