从期货价格变动预测CPI变化

Changes Forecast in the CPI from the Futures Price Changes——Positive Analysis of Commodity Futures Price Volatility Impact on the CPI

2007年中国经济在高位上继续保持了快速增长的势头,同时CPI的增长也结束了低位运行态势。宏观经济的高增长,低通胀暂告一段落,因此,我国的宏观经济政策也相应地进行了调整。而CPI作为制定宏观经济政策的重要依据,对其预测的准确性也就更加重要。为此,本文利用近几年来商品期货价格指数与消费价格指数的数据,通过计量方法研究了商品期货市场对消费价格指数的影响,提出期货市场可以成为CPI预测的一个有效途径。

In 2007, China＇s economy continues to maintain a high growth momentum, at the same time, the situation of the CPI growth at the low level came to an end. China＇s macro-economic high growth and low inflation had an end for the time being. As a result, Ching＇s macro--economic policies have been adjusted accordingly. As an important basis for the decision--making of macro-economic policy, the accuracy of their forecasts is more important. For this reason, through the method of measuring by using commodity futures price index and consumer price index data of recent years, we researched the impact of commodity futures market on the consumer price index and proposed that futures market could be an effective way of CPI forecast.