气候变化的地球环境解读与不良后果分析

Earth Environment Explanation and Adverse Consequence Analysis on Climate Change

地球相对适宜的平均温度为15℃,这种动态平衡显然已被打破,全球加速变暖已是不争的事实。在影响地球环境变迁的天—地—人三大因素中,天和地的作用是客观的、决定性的、不可逆的;生物作用特别是人的作用大多是主观的、非常重要的、负有人为责任的。气候变暖的负面影响,不仅使极端天气气候事件频繁发生,使局部地区甚至整个生物圈结构和功能失衡,导致全球环境进一步恶化,而且在经济社会层面各方借机争夺未来在能源发展和经济竞争中的优势地位,势必引发全球公共资源的新一轮利用和分配问题而产生的冲突,威胁和与平安全。看来,限制CO2等温室气体排放、应对气候变化的国际主流的努力,在技术上是可行的,但在政治或经济上是否可行,需要展开进一步深入的国际磋商与务实合作实践。

The relatively suitable average temperature for earth is about 15℃. But the kinetic equilibrium has been destroyed obviously. It is an unarguable truth that the global warming is accelerating, which has attracted the attention of the world widely. Among the three main factors affecting the change of earth environment, the effects of heaven and earth are objective, determinative and irreversible, while the biological action especially that of the humans are mostly subjective, important and man-made. The negative effects of climate warming not only cause extreme climate to happen frequently, make some areas even the whole biosphere structure losing its balance and result in the global environment getting worse further, but also will initiate new conflict between the utilization and distribution of the global public resources and endanger the security and peace of the world, for human may fight for the superiority in energy development and economy completion in future. Although the main trend of the international society makes effort to limit the emission of greenhouse gases such as CO2 and to cope with the climate change, which may be feasible in technology but unknown in politics or economy, it need to consult and cooperate with each other more deeply.